As the U.S. and Iran head into a new phase of conflict, Hussein Banai, associate professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, part of Indiana University's College of Arts and Sciences, offered his analysis on CNA's Asia First program.
The July 16 interview came after U.S. forces struck Iran's coastal defenses and missile sites, following the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran, in turn, threatened to shut down additional regional energy exports, describing itself as engaged in an “existential war” with the United States. At the center of the standoff is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed before the war began.
Banai described the escalating rhetoric from Washington as a signal that the president wants to open a new stage in the conflict. He explained that if the first phase of the war demonstrated Iran's limited ability to defend against American and Israeli strikes, a second phase appears designed to show that the U.S. can bring Iran to its knees if it does not yield control of the strait.
But Banai pointed out that Iran's own strategy carries real risk. If Iran disrupts shipping broadly enough to affect its own allies, particularly China, which relies heavily on discounted Iranian oil, the move could turn international opinion against Tehran. He also warned that defending Iran's military positions along the strait could expose them to a full-scale American attack, noting that “there's a danger that they could overplay their hand militarily as well.”
Banai also addressed the exposure faced by the United States' Gulf allies as the conflict continues, saying “their reliance on American military becomes much greater the longer this conflict goes.” He noted that global oil reserves, lower now than earlier in the war, mean the economic toll of extended fighting is likely to hit the region's economies harder than it might have several months ago.
Banai's frequent appearances in international media, including recent commentary for outlets such as The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and NBC News, reflect the Department of International Studies' role, within the Hamilton Lugar School, as a source of expert analysis on Iran and the broader Middle East. His research on U.S.-Iran relations and Iran's political development gives Hamilton Lugar students direct access to the kind of expertise shaping real-time understanding of one of the world's most closely watched conflicts.
Watch the full interview: “What's next for the US and Iran? An expert weighs in,” CNA.
