Zachary Constantino, a professor of practice in the Department of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, has published a policy memo arguing that maritime competition with China — not the threat from Pakistan — represents India's most consequential long-term security challenge. The memo, "Countering China in the Maritime Domain Remains Vital to Indian Interests," appears in a collection of discussion papers from the University of Central Florida's India Center, published April 9, 2026.
The paper grew out of Constantino's participation in the India Center's 2025 conference, "Capturing Change in India: Technological Transitions, Economic Transformations and Evolving Global Footprint." The conference brought together scholars and practitioners to examine India's rapid transformation across technology, economics, and international relations — and Constantino's contribution centers on what he sees as the most urgent dimension of India's evolving global posture.
Constantino opens with a frank assessment of the geopolitical moment. India's May 2025 conflict with Pakistan and the subsequent warming of U.S.-Pakistan relations created real headwinds for New Delhi, and Indian policymakers are understandably focused on strengthening air and land capabilities in response. But Constantino's argument is that this focus, however understandable, risks misallocating strategic attention and resources. Pakistan, he contends, is a manageable problem — an ongoing irritant that can be addressed through counterterrorism operations, intelligence, and backchannel diplomacy. China is categorically different.
China, Constantino argues, is the only power capable of genuinely disrupting India's rise. And nowhere is this contest more consequential than at sea. India routes roughly 95 percent of its trade by volume through Indian Ocean sea lanes — the same waters where China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been steadily expanding its reach. He traces the arc of that expansion: China's 2015 defense white paper embraced a doctrine of "far-seas protection" for the first time; the PLAN has maintained a continuous presence in the western Indian Ocean supported by a military base in Djibouti; regular Chinese submarine deployments in the Indian Ocean since 2014, accumulating deep-water expertise; and Beijing’s development of dual-use port infrastructure across the region to sustain a permanent naval presence in India’s backyard.
India is not without advantages. Its control of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Lakshadweep archipelago, and a new airstrip in Mauritius gives it considerable geographic leverage for maritime domain awareness. But Constantino warns that surveillance capacity is of little value without the ships to deter or respond to the PLAN’s encroachment. India's submarine force is in serious trouble. Only six of 24 proposed submarines have been commissioned, most of the conventional submarine fleet is approaching three decades of age, and a third aircraft carrier remains uncertain. These are not abstract procurement delays; they represent a growing vulnerability as Chinese naval activity in the region increases.
The memo points to the United States as the essential partner in closing that gap. Constantino highlights the renewed 10-year U.S.-India defense framework, which identifies undersea domain awareness as a co-production priority. Joint development of autonomous undersea vehicles and sonobuoys, he argues, can strengthen India's ability to monitor and respond to PLAN activity while deepening the defense industrial ties that make such cooperation durable over time.
The analysis reflects Constantino's two decades of government experience, including his time as a senior advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he worked directly on maritime security and technology-sharing in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. At Hamilton Lugar, he brings that practitioner's perspective to courses on intelligence and South Asian security competition and to a research agenda that examines how rising powers navigate an increasingly contested regional order.
Read the full text of "Countering China in the Maritime Domain Remains Vital to Indian Interests" in the UCF India Center's 2025 conference discussion papers.
